Intel, AMD, Samsung Affected as Chip Sales Dive Globally: IDC

Intel, AMD, Samsung and a host of other chip makers have been affected as the semiconductor market continues to be affected by the economic downturn, according to a new report by the IDC. The analyst firm expects a further revenue decline of 22 percent in 2009, due to a combination of declines in unit shipments, low utilization rates and price erosion.

Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, Samsung and other chip providers have been hit by the economic downturn in a hard way, as research firm IDC expects a 22 percent decline in global semiconductor sales this year.

According to IDC, the semiconductor market was one of the first affected by the recession that began in late 2007. In 2008, revenues from semiconductors declined 2 percent.

The trend will only accelerate in 2009, fueled by massive declines in the key areas of unit shipments, low utilization rates and price erosion.

"The semiconductor industry downturn will be prolonged by macroeconomic uncertainty this year," Mario Morales, vice president for Semiconductor Research at IDC, said in a statement. "With demand visibility low, utilization rates at frozen levels and supplier inventories growing because of deteriorating demand targets, IDC does not expect year-over-year growth for semiconductor revenues until the second quarter of 2010."

IDC sees connectivity, wireless broadband, multicore processors and NAND as technologies that suppliers will invest in even during a downtown; however, they also projected capital spending by players in the semiconductor market to decline by 45 percent in 2009.

Earlier this week, Gartner released its own analysis of the semiconductor industry, predicting record revenue declines in 2009 of 24.1 percent versus 2008 revenue.

In December 2008, Gartner predicted the 2009 fall-off would be around 16 percent, but revised its estimates after taking into account "worsened" market conditions. Like IDC, the firm predicts that the industry will return to positive growth in 2010.

"We believe that the financial crisis has reset the semiconductor market," Bryan Lewis, research vice president at Gartner, said in a statement. "After the 2001 recession, in which semiconductor sales plummeted by a record 32.5 percent, semiconductor sales took about four years to get back to 2000 levels."

As GM losses deepen, bankruptcy fears grow

GM Chairman Rick Wagoner pressed Thursday to convince Washington to provide more aid as the company revealed a massive loss coupled with a warning that its auditors are likely to question the automaker's viability.

It was a further sign that the century-old automaker is teetering on bankruptcy, a scenario that General Motors Corp. is desperately trying to avoid.

Now Washington will have to decide whether it makes sense to loan more money to GM after the company reported an annual loss of $30.9 billion. Company executives met with the Obama administration's auto task force for about six hours, outlining the need for as much as $16.6 billion that it has been seeking -- in addition to the $13.4 billion already given.

Several industry analysts said Thursday's loss, while larger than predicted, was not a complete shock and only underscored the need for more federal assistance.

"The last thing that Washington needs is more proof that GM is doing poorly," said Aaron Bragman, an industry analyst with IHS Global Insight. "What Washington is looking for is proof that GM is on the right path toward recovery. It's really difficult to show that you're on that path when the path keeps getting swept away by the floods of recession."

The automaker faces tough political currents, though.

"It's not going to play well, and it won't play well in particular ... with the Republicans," said Sheldon Stone, a restructuring expert from Birmingham-based Amherst Partners. "I don't think Congress in general is going to have the stomach to continue to fund what looks like a black hole. I think they cannot avoid bankruptcy."

While things look bleak, several analysts see hope in recent statements by President Barack Obama pledging to help the industry and in recent meetings between industry leaders and the president's auto task force.

"What is happening is the awareness of how strategic this industry is and how significant it is if there were a major failure," said David Cole, chairman for the Center for Automotive Research.

Auditors questions expected

GM, however, said that its auditors were likely to formally question in the company's annual report whether it is a "going concern" -- in other words, whether it is able to continue its operations. The warning could indicate that GM might be forced to file for bankruptcy, a move it has long resisted.

"Going-concern opinions tend to trigger defaults that allow a whole lot of bad things to happen if people are inclined to do that," said Kimberly Rodriguez, a restructuring specialist from Grant Thornton. "The key here is the reaction from the stakeholders."

GM's 2008 loss is second only to 2007's loss of $38.7 billion, which was largely because of a noncash, tax issue. Excluding onetime charges, GM's loss last year would have been $16.8 billion.

This year's loss, however, was largely attributed to plummeting sales, a consequence of a global recession, which has consumers clamping down on spending, as well as a credit crisis, which has left many consumers who would like to buy a vehicle unable to get a loan.

Sales of GM vehicles in the United States, the automaker's largest market, dropped 22.7% last year. In all, the automaker's revenue for 2008 dropped to $149 billion, down from $180 billion in 2007.

GM said it ended 2008 with $14 billion in cash on hand, notable because the automaker has said its needs a minimum of $11 billion to $14 billion in cash to operate.

On an adjusted basis, GM burned through $19.2 billion in operating cash last year, including $5.2 billion in the final three months. That's compared with $2.4 billion in 2007.

GM Chief Financial Officer Ray Young said the company expects cash burn to drop to $14 billion in 2009.

"We're not pleased with a negative $14-billion cash flow burn. That's still a very, very sizable amount. But at the same time, we recognize that the industry conditions in '09 are going to remain fairly challenging," Young said. "We're not forecasting any heroic recovery."

Efraim Levy, an analyst with Standard & Poor's Equity Research, wrote in a note Thursday that GM could "very well" end up spending more than the $14 billion in operating cash this year.

"This quarter, in our view, just fills in the gap missing in the recently filed viability plan," Levy said. "It reinforces for us the notion that GM will need multibillion-dollar government assistance to continue as a going concern."

It is seeking as much as $16.6 billion more from the U.S. government and billions more from foreign governments for the automaker's non-U.S. operations.
Bankruptcy options

Meanwhile, GM continues to negotiate with bondholders and the UAW in an effort to reduce its debt as required by the terms of the government loans.

Without the threat of bankruptcy, however, some analysts have suggested that GM is at a disadvantage in its negotiations to reduce its debt with bondholders.

"Taking the bankruptcy option off the table diminishes the bargaining power of the companies and the government with the stakeholders," analyst Brian Johnson of Barclays Capital said in a note earlier this month.

Additional government support is a tough sale, said James Cashman, a professor at the University of Alabama with years of experience in the auto industry. GM's loss, Cashman said, would "force the debate ... for bankruptcy."

Joseph Phillippi, a longtime industry analyst, agreed that the sum of 2008's loss could make GM's efforts to get assistance even more difficult.

"You've got so many hawks. ... It's only going to give them more ammunition," against more government aid, he said.

GM, meanwhile, has argued against bankruptcy, saying such a move would cause damage to its sales and image.

Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research, said no one was expecting GM to have good news Thursday.

"The big deal here is that you can't cost ... your way out of this problem. It's totally a revenue problem," Cole said. "As long as the market stays in the tank at the level it is, the industry is right on the edge of a cliff."

However, GM's loss was greater than expected. A survey of analysts by Bloomberg had predicted a loss of $26.83 per share, excluding onetime items. However, GM's loss per share was $29, excluding onetime charges.

Contact TIM HIGGINS at 313-222-8784 or thiggins@freepress.com. Staff writer Justin Hyde contributed to this report.

Bobby Jindal's cynical anti-worker politics

Louisiana's Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal launched his campaign for the GOP presidential nomination this week by delivering his party's response to President Barack Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress, Feb. 24.

In his response, Jindal failed to offer new ideas or even give an inkling of an impression that he understands the significant hardships of working Americans or the dramatic shift in ideas and politics that has occurred over the past four or five months since the collapse of the economy and the election of President Obama.

Instead, Jindal spouted stale Republican ideological talking points about the need for more Bush-style tax cuts for the wealthy and attacks on "big government." The subtext of Jindal's speech expressed a hope for continued economic hardship in order to boost his personal ambitions for the presidency.

Jindal's speech, which was universally panned, was part of a recent two-pronged effort on his part to launch himself as the presidential frontrunner of his party. Earlier, he had vowed to reject almost $100 million as part of the president's economic stimulus package earmarked for unemployment benefits for his state.

Ignoring the fact that his state lost about 430 jobs every day in the month of December, Jindal described the stimulus spending as wasteful and even harmful.

Jindal's move, designed to appeal to a shrinking and narrow Republican Party base, will harm as many as 25,000 Louisiana families, responded ACORN in a statement this week.

"Governor Jindal is holding the recovery and the state's economy hostage to his own ideology and his naked ambitions for national office," said Gwendolyn Adams, board member of Louisiana ACORN.

ACORN called on the state legislature to force the governor to accept all of the estimated $4 billion headed to his state as part of the president's stimulus package.

"Unemployment in Louisiana is up 50 percent over the last year, and unemployment assistance is the quickest way to get money into our struggling economy as jobless workers spend those funds immediately on necessities with our Louisiana merchants," said Adams.

Louisiana's Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu sharply criticized Jindal's maneuver also. He suggested that Jindal may have abdicated his job first and foremost as the state's governor by taking on the responsibility of becoming the national spokesperson for the GOP. Landrieu added, "It puts the governor at risk of sending mixed messages. … Louisiana should be very aggressive in going to get this money."

After Jindal's announcement of his refusal to accept the money, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin described Jindal's presidential ambitions as "clouding" his judgment.

Other commentators have pointed out Jindal's refusal of some of the stimulus money may have an even more insidious side. Official government statistics on unemployment are determined by the number of people who apply for jobless benefits, the program for which Jindal has refused stimulus money.

Unemployment benefits are limited, however, to a certain period of time. So when a worker has been out of a job past that deadline, he or she is no longer eligible for benefits and is simply no longer counted by the government as unemployed. President Obama's stimulus package aimed to remedy this situation by expanding the unemployment compensation program.

But by refusing the money and the inclusion of more unemployed workers in the program, Jindal's unstated goal seems to be to artificially reduce the state's official unemployment rate – without creating any new jobs – to make himself appear to be successful.

Citigroup: World’s Worst Investment to Get Even Worse

Losers double down.That’s the classic trading rule which the USA is about to violate in an enormous way. According to trading maven Dennis Gartman, one should “never, ever, ever, under any circumstance, add to a losing position.”And yet that is what we are about to do.To review: Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson made a terrible investment on behalf of the taxpayers by purchasing a 7.8% stake in Citigroup (C) for an initial $25 billion dollars. He further put the US on the hook by guaranteeing against 90% of future losses on $301 billion in assets. Subsequently, we (the taxpayers) injected another $20 billion dollars.

At the time, Citigroup had a market cap of about ~$50 billion dollars. Today, its worth ~$13 billion.

So for about 100% of the market value of Citi, plus insurance guarantees worth of as much as 500% of its value (~$275 billion), we got less than 1/10 of a company that in total was worth 1/5 of our investment.

Pretty good deal, eh?

That $45 billion dollar stake now has a market value of just over a billion.

And, its about to get even worse.

Rather than do what is the FDIC-mandated-by-law thing, we will instead convert the nearly worthless common into preferred shares. The taxpayers stake will rise to near 40% of Citigroup.

NYT:

“Under the terms of the deal, the Treasury Department has agreed to convert up to $25 billion of its preferred stock investment in Citigroup into common stock. It will convert its stake to the extent that Citigroup can persuade private investors, including several big foreign government investment funds, to do so alongside the government, two people close to the deal said.”

What does this do for us? Well, the higher investment stake creates an enormous incentive for John Q. Public to continue to pour money into Citi, regardless of valuation. The inept banking giant then has access to infinite amount of capital, courtesy of you, the 1040 filers.

Its just another example of why these insolvent banks should be nationalized, or for you squeemish free marketers, FDIC mandated, pre-packaged Chapter 11, government funded reorganization.

If Obama continues to listen to the god-awful advice of Larry Summers and Tim Geithner, he will doom his presidency, and finsh marginally ahead of George W. Bush on the list of worst presidents.

This is not change we an believe in . . .

GM uncontrolled bankruptcy would be disaster: Ross

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said an "uncontrolled" bankruptcy of General Motors Corp would be a "disaster" and a prepackaged reorganization would be a better solution.

Speaking at the Wharton Crisis and Opportunity conference in Philadelphia, Ross said: "It doesn't work to do an uncontrolled bankruptcy. It would have to be prepackaged, with the government writing a really big check."

"It would be difficult to have a bankruptcy work and it would be impossible on a free-fall basis," Ross said.

He also said the auto suppliers needed immediate support. Since car makers scaled back vehicle production in January, the parts suppliers sold fewer goods and would have minimal accounts receivable or money flowing into their coffers.

"There were no receivables created in January because no one was making cars," Ross said.

Separately, Ross said he expects about 1,000 banks to fail before the economic crisis ends. He expects 2009 to be a big year for FDIC-assisted bank purchases.

Ross said he sees no chance for economic recovery in 2009 and any recovery in 2010 would not be robust.

(Reporting by Jessica Hall; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn, Phil Berlowitz)

Social Media for Business: The Dos & Don’ts of Sharing

Sarah Evans is the director of communications at Elgin Community College (ECC) in Elgin, Illinois. She also authors a PR and social media blog and is the founder of #journchat.

It doesn’t matter if you’re on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Flickr; your online personality is not only part of your overall brand, it becomes an interactive experience for you and your business. So, who is the face or voice of your brand and what do they share? It’s a very important decision in and of itself.

Just as you create branding guidelines and key messaging guides, so too should you dedicate time to creating your social media personality. There are multiple combinations that you can use to increase your brand visibility and converse with your customers.
Be transparent and authentic. Be human.

Don’t want the worst day of your life to be played over and over again like Groundhog Day? Then don’t talk, share, Tweet or write about it via social media. That said, no one is happy, or perfect all of the time. It’s okay to let people into the “real” events which happen in your life. Social media for business is about return on engagement. Connect with people, build opportunities through dialogue which would not have otherwise occurred, then connect them with your business.

Think in terms of “bad driver just cut me off” instead of “just got served papers for a lawsuit.” The first example connects people and encourages dialogue. Who hasn’t been cut off by a bad driver? The second example has the potential to make people uncomfortable or turn them “off” to your brand.

A great example of “what not to do” is posted on Peter Shankman’s blog, How an “accomplished communicator” communicates. The sender of this email has now publicly shared a not-so-nice side of his personality in a VERY public setting.
A profile pic is worth a thousand tweets

A major part of your social media personality is your avatar and your profile bio. The first rule for avatars and bios is to stay consistent across social platforms. If you’re sharing information from your business account, decide whether you want your avatar to be your company logo or the face of the president. Each sends a completely different message and requires a different messaging and branding approach.

Who is doing it well? Here are a few of my favorite business and/or personal branded avatars and profiles on various social media platforms:
Facebook

Businesses have many options when it comes to creating a Facebook personality. There are options for “group” or “fan” pages versus a personal account.

Fallon wins ad business from Nestle, Purina, Totino's and Boston Market

Fallon Minneapolis is having a great year.

The agency, which had a meltdown of sorts in 2008, has gained four big wins in the first two months of 2009 – the latest being Nestle Beverages, which has asked Fallon to create advertising for unannounced new beverage products.

In 2008, the agency saw the departure of many major ad clients and a move to new office space, which involved a literal meltdown; to note its rebirth, the agency transformed a pile of old awards into a lump metal emblazoned with a simple slogan – “We are Fallon.”

While the addition of Fallon to Nestle’s agency roster doesn’t have the panache of a big-budget brand-name assignment, the secrecy surrounding the announcement and Nestle’s $1 billion-plus annual ad budget could spell good news for Fallon.

“From our earliest meetings, Fallon brought insight and understanding to the new world of beverage marketing,” said Alfonso Gonzalez, vice president of Nestle Beverages, in a news release.

“Fallon seems to have a grasp on today's consumer who expects more from a brand than a simple transaction. We expect Fallon to create value beyond brand communications,” Gonzalez said.

Other new Fallon clients announced this year are Boston Market, Totino’s brand frozen pizza and pizza rolls and Purina’s ALPO brand dog food.
Nikki Meirath and Edie Burge, spokeswomen for Fallon and Nestle Beverages, respectively, refused to comment on the Nestle product or products for which Fallon could create advertising.

Switzerland-based Nestle sells a variety of consumer beverages and beverage-additives, including Coffee-Mate, Jamba Juice, Nescafe Clasico soluble coffee, Nestea, Juicy Juice, Nesquik milk powder and syrups and – most recently – Nespresso brand premium coffee and coffee-makers, along with a just-launched rollout of U.S. boutique storefronts.

Nespresso has established itself across Europe as a premium workplace coffee with so-called “pod machines,” which brew a cup of coffee one serving at a time from aluminum capsules that hold a servings worth of grounds.

What’s this have to do with Fallon?

Plenty, perhaps. In the past, the agency has worked with omnipresent coffeehouse Starbucks, which last month introduced its own premium soluble, or instant, coffee in the United States.

The agency handled package design and advertising for Starbucks shelf-stable Frappuccino brand sweetened coffee drink and canned Starbucks Doubleshot brand coffee.

The agency already creates advertising for a number of Nestle Purina pet foods, including Beneful, Dog Chow, Purina One and corporate strategic branding in the United States and Latin America.

As collaboration becomes a necessity, branding becomes an issue

As nonprofit organizations pursue a variety of collaborative models, it will be increasingly important for the collaborators to understand how to effectively maintain and leverage their own organizational sub-brand while building a new master brand for the collaborative effort.

There are three keys to creating a strong brand perception for your collaborative effort:

• Know yourself: Understand what your internal stakeholders (senior leadership, boards, staff, volunteers for the involved organizations) want and expect the collaboration to be, now and in the future;

•Know your audience: Be clear on what your key external constituencies need and expect from the collaboration;

• Know your competition: Have a clear perspective on the other options your audiences have in terms of services, giving, volunteering, etc.

Know yourself

Start with the strategic plan for the collaboration (if you don’t have a strategic plan for the collaboration, stop reading immediately and get to work on a strategic plan! It’s extraordinarily difficult to develop a brand strategy without the foundation and consensus that emerge from the strategic planning process).

Make sure you know the answers to a core set of questions: What is the mission of the collaboration? What are our goals? What is the model – how tightly integrated will the organizations be? What are the strengths of the collaboration? What are the weaknesses?

Perhaps the most important aspect of knowing yourself is understanding how you want the collaboration to be perceived. What do you want people (your respective boards, donors, served populations, the media, etc.) to be saying about the collaboration? That desired perception is what your communications and interactions should be building in the marketplace.

There are a number of different ways to successfully answer these questions – often, a combination of facilitated brainstorm sessions and individual interviews with key internal stakeholders (staff, board, volunteers) yields the richest results.

Know your audience

Many organizations (nonprofit and for-profit alike) find it challenging to agree on their most important audiences. That can become even more challenging in a collaborative situation.�½ After all, it can be a bit counterintuitive – if you are trying to increase the number of people who support or use you, wouldn’t you cast the net as wide as possible?

The problem is that most organizations simply don’t have the resources to effectively market to that many people. Again, look to the mission and strategic plan to identify and prioritize the target audiences for the collaboration.

Then, ask a representative sample of those audience members what they want, need, expect from the collaboration, understanding that it might be broader, or more narrow, than what each participating organization provides.

As was the case with your internal supporters, a combination of focus groups and individual interviews typically provides the type and level of information you need to really know your audience.

It may not look like competition, and you may not be comfortable calling it competition, but at the end of the day, your served population, your donors, your volunteers, etc. almost always have options – other places they can go to get what you want them to get from you (or give what you want them to give to you).

And a collaborative effort might very well have different competition than the individual organizations typically face. So, think long and hard and, by the way, ask your internal and external constituents: What options are out there? How do they brand and market themselves? Who do they serve?

Understanding the options helps you determine how to position the collaboration in the context of those options. It allows you to learn from others’ best practices and from their mistakes.

Once you have collected and analyzed all the information that emerges from this brand planning process, you will be ready to build a messaging framework for the collaborative effort.

That framework should include the following core elements:

• Mission statement (the collaboration’s reason for being),

• Elevator pitch (the concise answer to the question, “Who are you as a collaboration?”),

• Brand promise (the unique and specific thing the collaboration promises to your stakeholders),

• Brand personality (the emotional side of your brand; what it’s like to interact with the collaboration),

• Brand proof points (often called “reasons to believe”),

• Audience message matrix (a group of supporting messages versioned by audience segment) and

• Product-service brand hierarchy (how your sub-branded products and services fit together).

It’s important to remember that you need to demonstrate the synergies among the collaborating brands. To that end, the messaging for the collaboration should leverage and support the messaging for the individual participating organizations and vice versa.

With your strategy and messaging in place, you will have a strong foundation from which to take the next steps – building the brand perception and delivering what the collaborative brand promises.

As a team, you will be well equipped to tackle crucial questions such as:

• What does it look like (name, logo, visual identity),

• How do you get the word out (integrated communications plan) and

•How do you ensure that each organization delivers on the promise of the collaboration (internal brand rollout/brand training).

Michele Levy, based in Newton, considers herself a brand therapist for nonprofit organizations. Her consulting work includes research, brand strategy, message development, communications planning and training.

Expert says the future of SEO is in branding

Friday, 27 Feb 2009 23:07

One expert says the future of SEO is in branding

Although Google is normally tightlipped about the way searches are conducted, one expert says new changes from the company means the future of search engine optimization is in brands.

When people talk about the history of search engine optimization (SEO), Google's Florida Update is often credited with affecting the SEO of websites all over the world. But Aaron Wall, writing for searchnewz.com, says a recent update from the search engine was even bigger, but few noticed.

Wall says the update from Google on January 18th increased the importance of brands in search engine result pages. He says that since that date, a number of brands quickly started ranking for certain search terms.

"Add in other brands that were already ranking, and in some cases brands have 80 percent or 90 percent of the first page search results for some of the most valuable keywords," he writes.

According to Wall, the search engine optimization (SEO) community should have been able to pick up on the fact that Google would make this move based on statements from company CEO Eric Schmidt who was quoted in October 2008 as saying brands and word relationships would play a key role in the future development of search.

A study earlier this month from Practical eCommerce found that while most companies use search engine optimization (SEO), the majority don't understand it with a large percentage believing it's fine to engage in what may be considered unethical SEO practices.

Death Toll Rises in Bangladesh Mutiny

Tanks rolled unchallenged into the headquarters of the Bangladesh Rifles Friday as government officials, soldiers and police began surveying a scene of carnage in wake of a two-day mutiny that may have left more 100 people dead, mostly Army officers. Security forces have arrested about 300 members of the paramilitary border guard which revolted. The situation remains tense with emotions running high in the army over the loss of so many officers.

Local residence peep through the gate of their house near the Bangladesh Rifles headquarters in Dhaka, Bangladesh, 26 Feb 2009

Bangladesh's Army is trying to account for missing officers feared killed by rebel border guards during the two-day mutiny that began at the Dhaka headquarters of the paramilitary force.

A survivor told reporters he witnessed the deaths of many of his fellow Army officers when 2,000 border guards opened fire on their commanders. The Lieutenant Colonel, Syed Kamruzzaman, says among the dead are the chief of the Bangladesh Rifles, Major General Shakil Ahmed.

Some of the uniformed bodies have been found dumped in sewers outside the guards' barracks. Several civilians are also reported to be among the dead.

During the mutiny, some of the guards said the uprising was triggered by the Army leadership ignoring their grievances. The paramilitary force has long resented that its leadership comes from the Army, not its own ranks. There have been complaints of officers skimming funds while the relatively meager salaries of the guards have not keep pace with soaring food prices.

The rebels put down their weapons after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina negotiated with them and made a nationally televised appeal Thursday, saying in exchange for surrender she would address their concerns and grant amnesty to mutineers.

But with details emerging of the massacre that took place at the Bangladesh Rifles' headquarters, retired major general A.N.M Muniruzzaman, president of the Bangladesh Institute for Peace and Security Studies, expects the perpetrators to face justice.

"The figures could go as high as 100 to 120 [killed]," he said. "Besides, there has been extensive looting, burnings of buildings inside, alleged instances of physical abuse and rape. … I don't really think that this should be pardoned."

The paramilitary force, which has tens of thousands of soldiers in more than 60 posts nationwide, is primarily tasked with patrolling Bangladesh's four-thousand kilometer-long border with India. But it is also used as an auxiliary force to assist the army and police during times of unrest.

Retired General Muniruzzaman, a former presidential chief of staff, says the command structure of the Bangladesh Rifles, known as the BDR, has been destroyed by the mutiny.

"This is a major challenge that the government will have to face now. Because, as of today, I understand our borders are unguarded," he said. "Most of the battalions located on the borders are not performing their duties. Complete chain of command of the BDR has been physically wiped out."

The BDR traces it roots to the late 18th century when it was formed by colonial British rulers. It has a heroic legacy in modern Bangladesh because most of its troops revolted against their Pakistani masters during the 1971 war of independence.

Since independence, Bangladesh has seen a series of violent military takeovers and attempted coups.

Anand is a good boy says Yesudas

His songs have moved millions and lifted many a soul from gloom and despondency. But Padmashri K J Yesudas is a sad man today.

As his nephew, beleaguered fashion designer Anand Jon, awaits the sentence on cases of alleged rape and molestation, the singer fervently prays for truth to triumph in the end.

“Everyone realises that the charges against Jon are malicious, false and fabricated. Most of the charges have been dropped. Yet, he continues to languish in the prison. I am saddened that the Indian community in the US has chosen to remain silent despite knowing that he’s a victim of racism and professional jealousies. Anand is a good boy,” he says.

Why does he think Anand is being targeted? “We all know how quickly Jon shot to fame on the strength of sheer talent and creativity. Just three days before he was incarcerated, he had received a plum offer, which would have put him in the topmost league. Obviously, there were people who couldn’t stomach the kind of fame, adulation and money that was coming Anand’s way,” he offers.

“I can’t question the justice system but my only prayer is that the judgement is based on truth. I want nothing to shake my faith in the basic goodness of human beings. If there is a God, we’ll know it. I only hope we can have our politicians, ministers, and the sizeable Indian community in the States rallying behind Jon,” he pleads.

Finally, how does he feel about India’s show at the Oscars? “I’m right now in no frame of mind to talk about that. Let me just say it’s good that America is now recognising that there’s an immensely talented Bharat out there. Like everybody else, I too feel proud of our achievements.”

Godhra riots: An unhealed wound

Ahmedabad: Remember Godhra! the scene of anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat seven years ago. The burnt coach of the Sabarmati Express still stands today reminding the terrible massacre and unhealed wounds of thousands victims after post Godhra riots.

Seven long years have passed after the Godhra train carnage that triggered months of communal violence across Gujarat, in which 59 people were burnt to death, but the wounds are still fresh. The memories of worst ever communal riots in India is still haunting the Muslim families, who lost their dear ones in the genocide.

Gujarat is known for producing mass leaders like Mahatma Gandhi, Mohammad Ali Jinnah and Sardar Ballav Bhai Patel, who led-India to fight for freedom during British rule. The state is also known for its enteprenuerial spirit and for its high growth rate.
Nevertheless, exactly seven years ago in the year 2002, the name of the state has become synonymous with possibly the worst example of communal riots in independent India.

It was not the first time when the country had witnessed communal riot but the 2002 riots were different in many ways. They were executed with clinical precision and moreover, the state and its arms emerged as major actors in the post-Godhra violence. The riots, which have also been called genocide and a pogrom, were the result of not merely state inefficiency, but worse, state complicity.

More than two and a half months of continuing violence sent shock waves across the globe and established the fact that violence, loot, arson, killing and rape are common in the country.

The families of victims are still waiting for justice. The pain increases after every hearing in court and the guilty are still breathing free.

Unofficial figures put the death toll above 2,000, most of them from minority community.

Some say, it was a state-sponsored riot, others give it a religious
colour. But the fact remains that the justice is awaited and the culprits need to be punished.

ISI not involved in Mumbai attacks: Indian official

NEW DELHI: The Mumbai Crime Branch has filed a chargesheet in a Mumbai court but without any proof of the ISI’s involvement in the Mumbai attacks.

Mumbai’s Joint Commissioner of Police Rakesh Maria told newsmen that investigations had not thrown up anything that could speak about the involvement of ISI. “It is an operation carried out by the LeT and we have not yet come across the involvement of ISI,” he added.

‘Slumdog Millionaire’

DOUBLE TAKE

“SLUMDOG” was coined by script wright Simon Beaufoy to describe people living in the legendary squalor of third world metropolitan boomtowns and contrast it with the term “Millionaire” and all that such a prominent societal status entails with its glittery albeit empty glamor. Based on Vikas Swarup’s ingenious debut novel Q&A, Beaufoy could have entitled the movie “Tea Server” (Indian term “chai walla” is used as a derogatory label on the protagonist), which is the role that Jamal Malik portrays at the time he joins the television gameshow “Who wants to be a millionaire?” But labeling a person “tea server” will not capture the essence of characters portrayed. The protagonists are all slumdogs, more particularly people who have lived like stray dogs under impoverished conditions and exposed to racial crime, religious pogroms, prostitution and child enslavement all within the setting of a growing urban metropolis that provides technological advancement, irrepresible enterpreneurship and celebrity obsession.

The movie commences with the torture of slumdog Jamal Malik by police interrogators. TV host Prem Kumar cannot believe that an uneducated, eighteen-year-old slumdog serving tea at a call center has been able to reach the gameshow’s final stage, when even highly educated barristers and professors are not able to go beyond the stage of sixty thousand rupees. Kumar has Malik arrested before he will be asked the last question for the grand prize of twenty million rupees. But after being beaten to a pulp, half-drowned in a toilet, and electrocuted to near death, Malik simply states: “I knew the answers.” No cheating happened. Curious, the police investigators ask Malik to explain. Each trivia question is precipitated with an anecdote from Malik’s life experiences as he grows from a young child to a teenager.

The first query is about the most popular Indian actor, who Malik properly identifies. He tells how he was locked up by his irritable older brother in a public toilet with no cesspool while he was defecating. He hears a helicopter of an arriving actor and the slum people chanting out the actor’s name. Malik remembers the actor’s photo in his pocket, and in his enthusiasm, jumps into the fecal mountain under the toilet so he can secure the actor’s signature. The picture is signed. A second query is asked about what the Hindu God Rama holds in his hand. He remembers when his mother is killed during a religious pogrom. He runs away with his brother Salim and a young vagrant girl Latika. As they run away from the massacre of Muslims, he sees a child dressed as Rama in a neighborhood festival and clearly remembers the image of Rama holding a bow. He adds: “If it wasn’t for Rama and Allah, I’d still have a mother.” Another query is asked about the image on a one hundred American dollar bill. He answers Benjamin Franklin; he narrates receiving a hundred dollar bill from an American couple whose car was cannibalized then giving it to a mendicant friend, who had been blinded by a Fagin-like gangster surrealistically from Dickensian literature. The blind friend asks him who the person on the hundred dollar bill is, and Malik describes Benjamin Franklin.

The police wonder aloud: “What the hell can a slumdog possibly know?” But the police realize that the recounted bittersweet passages of Malik’s life experiences have specifically prepped him to win the big-time game show money. Yet he does not want the money. He just wanted to be seen on TV by Latika, the child whom he first saved from the slums, then from a prostitution den, and who had now grown up to be a beautiful woman but a mistress of a millionaire slumlord gangster. He knew that Latika had been watching the famous TV gameshow and wanted to communicate his whereabouts just in case she wanted to escape.

The movie captivates the vibrant pulse and verve of a confusing universe where anything is possible—where even dirt-poor orphans can stand on the precipice of extreme wealth and popularity and live or die. Entwined with the bristling underclass of the unwashed, the heartbreaking poverty and privation, the exploitation and enslavement of prostituted women and children, this love story between two wretched souls, in essence, celebrates the resilience of people, the power of knowledge, the vitality of human experience and the transcendental complexion and innocence of unconditional and reciprocal love.

Mumbai’s slumdog ambiance is not new. This nation has its equivalent heady smells of turmeric, fenugreek and cumin. It has its glitter of skyscrapers, stuffed with smelly corporate suits, and the rust of tin-roofed favelas. But it is from the unheard sounds of pain, of poverty, of hopelessness that people wish to escape. Lotto, charity sweepstakes, gameshows, noontime variety shows, police and military academies, crime fraternities—all these provide an escape. Some people achieve prominence, some notoriety, some become decent human beings finding their souls in this cruel world. Slumdog Millionaire captures the essence of this world.

ericfmallonga@yahoo.com

Stock market jitters...Budget lightning rod...Iraq troop plans...

HONG KONG (AP) International stock markets continue to be beaten down by the faltering global economy. Asian stock markets were narrowly mixed Friday, with exchanges in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan gaining. The others lost ground. European shares fell in early trade.

Washington (AP) President Barack Obama's first budget blueprint has congressional Republicans seeing red, as in ink, because of the massive deficit. Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has praised the $3.6 trillion package for looking to the future.

WASHINGTON (AP) U.S. troops are expected to get the word today from the commander in chief. They're coming home from Iraq.

President Barack Obama is due at Camp Lejeune, N.C. and congressional officials say he will announce plans to bring most troops home by August 2010. Thousands will stay as advisers.

WASHINGTON (AP) An AP investigation of Republican Sen. Judd Gregg, the former commerce secretary nominee, shows he steered taxpayer money to New Hampshire's redevelopment of a former Air Force base. He and his brother made real estate deals there. Gregg says there's nothing illegal about it.

WHITE PLAINS, N.Y. (AP) A New York hedge-fund cheat is due in court today on charges that he skipped out on a 20-year prison sentence. Officials say Samuel Israel faked a suicide last year and took off in an RV before giving up. He's been getting a medical and psychological evaluation.

(Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press. All Rights

Stocks bear market has years to run: Prechter

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks will remain in a bear market for years as company earnings shrink further, and the S&P 500 could fall by half from current levels even though there could be a sharp short-term rally soon, Robert Prechter, who had forecast the 1987 market crash, said on Friday.

"My long term opinion is that the bear market has several years left to run, and stock prices will go a lot lower," Prechter, chief executive officer at research company Elliott Wave International, said in a telephone interview. "So any rally that happens is going to be a bear market rally."

The S&P this week broke below 745 points -- 19 months after Gainesville, Georgia-based Elliott Wave International had recommended shorting the benchmark index down to that level.

Now, Prechter said, the S&P index could fall by half from these levels over the long term, although he declined to give a specific forecast.

"We are less than halfway through it price-wise," he said. "The market is still overvalued, one reason being that companies continue to lower earnings."

But near term, the risk of a kneejerk rebound in stock prices has risen.

This week Prechter recommended closing out the short position recommended on the S&P 500 back in 2007, because too many investors are now betting that prices will drop.

"The bear side has gotten a bit crowded in the stock market," Prechter said, but said this is a short term strategic view only.

On Friday morning, the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low around 735 points, mauled by deepening worries about the banking system and government data showing the deepest quarterly contraction in the U.S. economy since the early 1980s.

NO GLITTER IN GOLD

Prechter now advocates betting on a decline in precious metals, after investors fearful about the safety of their money amid the biggest global financial crisis since the Great Depression have piled into the classic safe haven of gold in recent weeks, boosting its price.

On Monday, Prechter forecast that gold had just peaked, at $1,000 an ounce.

"Gold and silver should go significantly lower," he said. "Too many people now think owning them is a good idea. Remember when everybody thought owning real estate and stocks was a good idea?"

Gold, which briefly topped the $1,000 mark last week on escalating fears about the deeply impaired state of debt-burdened banks, has since slipped to about $950. Gold hit "an important intermediate term peak," at $1,000, Prechter said.

"Again, nothing is certain, but I like betting against crowds. And we have had so many to bet against in recent years: real estate, stocks, subprime mortgages, The New Economy, oil, collectibles, commodities, baseball salaries, and now silver and bonds. It's been a smorgasbord of opportunity," Prechter said.

In addition, Prechter has a pessimistic outlook on U.S. government bonds.

"Treasury bonds have started a bear market," over the longer term, he said.

"Several scenarios could unfold to explain why: one of them is that government borrowing demands could go up and up and creditors could demand higher yields," he said. The U.S. government is expected to issue some $2 trillion of debt this year.

Fixed-income analysts have been stepping up warnings that over recent months that gargantuan government bond issuance to pay for financial rescue efforts may push yields, which move inversely to prices, steeply higher. The 10-year yield traded one percentage point its five-decade trough on Friday, at 3.04 percent.

But Prechter, as he originally urged in his 2002 book "Conquer the Crash," which warned of the dangers of a U.S. debt bubble and deflationary depression, continues to favor safer cash proxies such as Treasury bills.

"It's a deflationary environment. Safe cash equivalents are still where you want to be," he said. "I am still in favor of (U.S.) T-bills," he said. "The dollar bull market has more to run. That is one reason to hold them."

Citigroup’s Third U.S. Rescue May Not Be Its Last, Analysts Say

By Christine Harper

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government’s third attempt to help rescue Citigroup Inc. won’t stanch the company’s losses, which will continue to swell and may lead the bank to require more money in coming months, analysts said.

Yesterday’s action didn’t furnish the New York-based bank with new money, although it cuts expenses by eliminating dividends on preferred stock. Instead, it converted preferred shares into common equity, which absorbs the first hit in the event of further losses, at an above-market-value price of $3.25. The stock, which has fallen 78 percent since the beginning of the year, closed in New York trading yesterday at $1.50, its lowest since November 1990.

Vikram Pandit, 52, Citigroup’s chief executive officer, told investors yesterday that increasing tangible common equity to as much as $81 billion from $29.7 billion should “take the confidence issues off the table,” regarding the company’s ability to absorb losses. Still, Citigroup, which lost $27.7 billion in 2008, is expected to lose $1.24 billion in the first six months of 2009, according to the average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

“There’s no difference here,” said Christopher Whalen, co- founder of Institutional Risk Analytics, a Torrance, California- based risk-advisory firm. “It won’t fix revenue, and you’re still going to see loss rates.”

One immediate change from yesterday’s announcement was that the value of the government’s investment fell by more than half. The government said it would convert as much as $25 billion of its preferred stock to common shares for a 36 percent stake in the bank. At yesterday’s closing price of $1.50, that investment is worth about $11.5 billion. Citigroup has a stock market value of $8.2 billion today.

‘Ripped Off’

“Taxpayers are being ripped off,” Congressman Brad Sherman, a Democrat from California who sits on the House Financial Services Committee, said in a statement. “The only thing worse than nationalizing a bank is to pay for the entire bank and only get one-third of it.”

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s analysts, led by Richard Ramsden, recommended that investors avoid Citigroup shares because “it is unclear whether this is the last round of capital restructuring, which means that existing equity may be further diluted in the future.” The analysts also noted that the bank’s new 4.3 percent ratio of tangible common equity to total assets falls to just 2 percent if deferred tax assets are excluded. Those will only become valuable if and when the bank returns to profitability.

Ratings Cut

Rather than boosting confidence, the move led Moody’s Investors Service to cut its senior debt rating for Citigroup to A3 from A2 and prompted Standard & Poor’s to change its outlook on the bank’s debt to “negative” from “stable.”

“Citi will face a tough credit cycle in the next two years, which will likely result in weak and volatile earnings,” S&P analyst Scott Sprinzen wrote in a statement. “We cannot rule out the possibility that further government support may prove necessary.”

Some analysts and investors were more heartened by yesterday’s news. David Trone, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller in New York, said the transaction fortifies the bank’s balance sheet, and he expects the stock to rise back to $3 “once the emotion of the moment passes.”

William Isaac, chairman of Secura Group LLC and a former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said that while he hopes yesterday’s action is enough, the government may need to put in more money if the economy continues to deteriorate.

“If they need more money we should put it in,” Isaac said. “The best approach is to do what you think will work as you go along.”

Preferred Stock

In its first two efforts to rescue Citigroup, the U.S. Treasury provided $45 billion by buying preferred stock and joined the Federal Reserve and FDIC in agreeing to guarantee the bank against all but $29 billion of losses on a $301 billion portfolio of assets. Yesterday, the Treasury, as well as other preferred stockholders including the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. and Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, gave up their dividends and agreed to take common stock at $3.25 a share.

“The administration and the past administration have tried so many different ways that we can only hope and pray that this time they get it right,” said Charles Rangel, a Democratic congressman from New York who serves as chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. “It seems like with the banks it is a never-ending thing.”

Conversion Price

The government was in a near-impossible position trying to set a price to convert the stock, said Tony Plath, a finance professor at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte.

“You can’t massively overpay because the taxpayer will scream, but you can’t pay market price because that doesn’t give them enough tangible common equity,” Plath said. “The value of the equity is close to zero, but you can’t let it fall to zero because so much of it is owned by private money outside the U.S.”

Institutional Risk Analytics’ Whalen said the government’s efforts are mainly protecting those who hold Citigroup bonds, which he said are widely held by other financial institutions and foreign governments.

“The taxpayer is funding the operating loss and protecting the bondholders,” Whalen said. “The subsidy for the banks will become one of the biggest lines in Washington’s budget.”

Boon for Bondholders

Citigroup’s $3 billion of senior unsecured bonds that mature in May 2018 rose to 87 cents on the dollar yesterday from 85 cents a day earlier, according to data reported on Trace, the real-time bond-price reporting service of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

Whalen said it would be better if the government organized bondholders in Citigroup and insurer American International Group Inc., which got a $150 billion U.S. bailout, and reach a deal to convert some debt to equity.

Standard & Poor’s, in cutting its outlook on Citigroup’s debt to negative, said even bondholders may be affected.

“Debt holders could eventually be required to participate in further government-led restructuring actions,” S&P said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net.

Iraq says its forces can fill US pullout gap

BAGHDAD (AFP) — Iraq believes its own forces have the muscle to ensure security as US President Barack Obama on Friday set an 18-month deadline for the end of American combat operations in the war-torn country amid doubts from foreign advisers.

Only a day before Obama's announcement, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said: "We have faith in our armed forces and our security services, to protect the country and consolidate security and stability."

Laying out a new strategy at a US Marines base in North Carolina, Obama said: "Let me say this as plainly as I can: by August 31, 2010 our combat mission in Iraq will end."

"I intend to remove all US troops from Iraq by the end of 2011," he said, adding that the post-2010 interim force would number between 35,000 and 50,000.

There are currently 142,000 American troops stationed in Iraq.

The White House said Obama, an early opponent of the Iraq war, briefed Maliki and his predecessor George W. Bush on the new plan by telephone shortly before making his speech.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said Obama heeded military advice in deciding to postpone by three months the pullout of most troops.

Commanders in Iraq, "particularly General (Raymond) Odierno," expressed concern that pulling out under the 16-month timeline by May 2010 could leave US forces short-handed at a sensitive time after crucial national elections in December, he said.

Under a military accord signed with Baghdad last November, Washington had already agreed to withdraw all of its combat troops by the end of 2011.

Following the 2003 overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the United States entirely dismantled Iraq's armed forces and police, and rebuilding began amid a violent insurrection and sectarian killings.

Today, after the expulsion of around 24,000 people with links to Islamist militias, the official police strength stands at 560,000.

"There is no doubt that Iraqi forces are capable of ensuring the country's security. We have already tested them and they are capable of assuming their responsibilities and standing up to threats," interior ministry spokesman General Abdel Karim Khalaf told AFP.

The defence ministry now boasts 260,000 troops, and has the ultimate target of a 300,000-strong military. It would be armed with modern equipment, and the acquisition of F-16 fighters is under negotiation.

In support, the Baghdad government has earmarked eight billion dollars to the security forces -- 12.6 percent of the 2009 budget.

"We are self-sufficient on many levels, but we still need help (from the US-led coalition) for surveillance of frontiers, the air force, the navy, sophisticated counter-terrorism weapons, and we need to make serious progress in intelligence matters," Iraq's counsellor for national security, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, told AFP recently.

Foreign advisers recognise there has been remarkable progress. But they also say logistical shortages threaten Iraqi operational capacity, and question whether these can be overcome before the US pullout.

"If we were leaving today, (the army) will be able to defend itself but it would rapidly disintegrate," says Australian commander John Snell, who sees the supply chain as priority.

The same uncertainty exists over the navy, destroyed in 1991 when a US-led coalition ousted Saddam's forces from Kuwait and advanced into southern Iraq.

Now being rebuilt, it has a total force of 2,000 sailors, with the aim of reaching 6,500 within three years. But it is not expected to be capable of defending Iraq's vital oil installations before the end of 2011.

"It will be difficult because we began from nothing, but I think our capacity will improve," said one naval officer, asking not to be identified.

In several relatively pacified provinces, Iraqi forces have been backed up by groups of the 100,000 members of the Sahwa (Awakening) movement, mostly former Sunni rebels who changed sides to fight against Al-Qaeda.

They were initially paid by the Americans but are now paid by Iraq's government.

But Diyala and Nineveh provinces, two bastions of Al-Qaeda, remain a real concern to the Iraqi authorities, despite joint military operations with the Americans.

Air Force looking for military training instructors

Few other figures in the Air Force exemplify leadership more than the military training instructor and more are needed to help meet short- and long-term manning goals.

Because of the demands of increasing end strength, Air Force officials need to bring in about 220 additional MTIs. About 4,000 additional enlisted Airmen per year will be recruited during the next two years. That will boost manning to 332,700.

The influx of new Airmen entering the Air Force and the recent expansion of the basic military training program has increased the number of trainees in the pipeline, said Chief Master Sgt. Brian Glasgow, chief of the support assignments branch at the Air Force Personnel Center here.

"To help meet the needs of the Air Force, we're working closely with Air Education and Training Command and the MTI recruiting team to streamline the instructor applications so we can make it easier for interested Airmen to enter these special duty assignments," Chief Glasgow said. "With senior leadership's involvement and by getting the word out, we're confident we'll be able to meet long-term manning goals."

Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force Rodney J. McKinley recounted some of the benefits of being an MTI.

"The current cadre of MTIs are doing an outstanding job and are working long hours to meet this influx, but they need help from their fellow Airmen," Chief McKinley said. "For eligible senior airmen, staff and technical sergeants, MTI duty provides excellent leadership and supervisory experience and propels them toward future success."

Other benefits for donning the Air Force blue MTI hat include:
-- Stable four-year controlled tour
-- $375 monthly special duty pay
-- $222 annual supplementary clothing allowance
-- Credits toward a Community College of the Air Force associates degree in Instructor of Technology and Military Studies
-- Air Education and Training Command Instructor Badge
-- MTI Recognition Ribbon for successful tour

In the short term, however, Air Force officials said additional MTIs are needed now to ensure a sustainable pace for the future. To bridge the gap and support AETC requirements, AFPC officials will select individuals with prior MTI experience for temporary duty using the TDY manning assistance program. Individuals with MTI experience in the past four years will be tasked to return to Lackland Air Force Base, Texas, for a 179-day TDY.

"The MTI sets the foundation for every enlisted member's success in the Air Force," Chief McKinley said.

Military Contractors Await Details of Obama’s Budget

The good news for big military contractors from President Obama’s budget this week was his proposal to increase the basic Pentagon budget by 4 percent, to $534 billion.

But now the companies are contending with a new question: what will the priorities of the new administration — which has made clear it wants to shift spending from futuristic weapons systems to simpler arms that troops can use now — mean for the industry?

The big contractors “are sitting on the edge of their seats,” said Gordon Adams, a professor at American University in Washington and an expert on the defense budget.

The defense secretary, Robert M. Gates, said this week that he would probably not decide the fate of some marquee weapons systems — including the Air Force’s supersonic F-22 jet fighter and the Navy’s plans for a new high-tech destroyer — until April.

In an effort to blunt some of the inevitable lobbying, he has taken the extraordinary step of requiring members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to sign documents promising not to leak any details of the deliberations.

In addition to the basic budget, the Obama administration expects to spend at least $130 billion to cover the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, bringing the total defense budget to $664 billion in fiscal 2010, which begins Oct. 1.

That is slightly higher than the $654 billion the government has set aside in the current fiscal year — the most it has spent, in inflation-adjusted terms, since World War II.

Some military executives acknowledge that the spending proposal for next year remains generous given the government’s spiraling budget deficits.

“It’s a good number in this economic climate,” said Kendell Pease, a spokesman for General Dynamics, the giant military contractor.

But, he said, “There are so many contentious issues to decide, and nobody is going to do anything in Congress until they see the line-item decisions.”

Investors also seem unnerved by the uncertainty; the stocks of the leading military companies fell even harder than the general market averages Friday.

Investors were also concerned that with the plans to gradually withdraw forces from Iraq, the level of supplemental war funding will drop sharply in the future.

Ronald Epstein, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, said in a research note that this could end up “marking the end of the defense spending boom.”

But other analysts said some of the savings in Iraq could be offset by greater spending in Afghanistan. James McAleese, whose company, McAleese & Associates, advises military firms on legal and business issues, said Mr. Obama’s proposed budget could also increase next year’s spending on weapons acquisitions and research by $6 billion.

But the military contracting industry is consumed now with the parlor game of guessing which prominent programs Mr. Gates will cut back or scrap as either “gold-plated” or troubled — and whether industry lobbyists will be able to persuade Congress to overturn some of those decisions.

Perhaps the most controversial program is Lockheed Martin’s advanced jet fighter, the F-22, which the Bush administration tried for years to halt, saying it was a cold war relic. Many analysts say they believe that a compromise to produce 60 more of the planes, at a cost of $9 billion to $11 billion, is likely, especially if the Air Force agrees to finance part of the cost by canceling other programs.

But others say President Obama’s statement this week that “we’re not paying for cold war-era weapons we don’t use” did not bode well for the F-22.

Other cuts seem clearer. During his campaign, Mr. Obama raised questions about the $10 billion missile defense programs — with parts led by Northrop Grumman and Boeing seeming most at risk — and the Army’s $160 billion modernization program, also led by Boeing.

Given Mr. Gates’s focus on systems that can help save lives, the Army should be able to hold onto its financing for a network of robots and other sensors to provide troops with better combat intelligence, Mr. McAleese said. But the Army might have to revise its plans for eight types of new ground vehicles.

Analysts say another likely target is the new DDG-1000 destroyer, which relies on sophisticated electronics systems from Raytheon. Even the Navy would like to drop the ship in favor of building more vessels of an earlier class.

Mr. Obama also said recently that he did not need a costly and long-delayed new fleet of presidential helicopters.

But because of cancellation fees and contractual obligations, it may make more sense to take possession of at least the first five, said Danielle Brian, executive director of the Project on Government Oversight, a nonprofit group that investigates government waste.
“We understand that the cost of canceling them could be too high,” she said.

Economy Accelerates Shift To Digital Advertising

The struggling economy may force companies to reduce investments in local advertising through 2013, but more ad dollars will go toward digital rather than traditional media, according to the U.S. Local Media Annual Forecast (2008-2013) by BIA Advisory Services and division Kelsey Group.

U.S. local advertising revenue will decline from $155.3 billion in 2008 to $144.4 billion in 2013, representing a negative 1.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

Companies will continue to increase the amount spent on interactive ads, from online to mobile to digital out-of-home that relies on IP platforms to transmit targeted messages. The Kelsey Group estimates the amount spent on interactive ads will more than double from 9% in 2008 to 22.2% in 2013.

Mobile, Internet Yellow Pages and online classifieds, local search, voice search and e-mail marketing are included in the interactive revenue that the research firm said will grow from $14 billion in 2008 to $32.1 billion in 2013.

In contrast, ad media investment in newspapers, direct mail, television, radio, print Yellow Pages, out of home (non-digital), cable television and magazines will decrease from $141.3 billion in 2008 to $112.4 billion in 2013, at a CAGR of -4.5%.

"If this would have been a modest recession, the trend lines would have been softer, but we believe the softness in the economy will accelerate the transition," said Neal Polachek, CEO, Kelsey Group. "If you go back and look at post-recession growth numbers for all traditional media, you'll see they bounced back well ahead of inflation and GDP."

Polachek said this forecast recognizes the importance the Internet plays, and that this time traditional media will not bounce back as it did after prior recessions.

Television aimed to create awareness; radio, sales through promotions; newspapers, geared toward retail; and Yellow Pages helped consumers find things to buy. "The Internet can do all those things, and that's the fundamental shift," Polachek said. "It's not just another media. It's all media rolled into one. That's very confusing for many people. You can't say newspapers will be fine because it can do something no other media does. Not true."

Polachek finds the acceleration of the shift from traditional to digital media surprising, rather than the shift. Experts expected the change, but the economic meltdown is driving it faster.

While Internet television doesn't put brands in front of 300 million consumers watching the Academy Awards or the Super Bowl on PCs or smartphones today, many of them could in three to five years, Polachek said. Some won't have a television hook-up either. "While we have been watching the industry make that profound and remarkable shift, the economy will force that

Mobile Local Search Advertising to Reach $1.3 Billion?

The number of people using mobile devices to get content is on the way up. Phones are getting smarter, more services are being offered mobile and apps are being created left and right. Mobile content viewership will only continue to rise. It stands to reason that mobile advertising will increase as well.

Looking at mobile local search advertising, the Kelsey Group thinks it will be heading toward somewhere around $1.3 billion in the next four years in the US alone.

"As mobile data consumption rises, we expect local marketing to be a big winner," says Michael Boland, program director, Mobile Local Media with The Kelsey Group. "There is a strong correlation between local search and the mobile use case, which will cause a good portion of the ongoing mobile application boom to focus on local."

A few other interesting findings cited in a report from the Kelsey Group include:

- The percentage of mobile searches that have local intent will increase from 28% in 2008 to 35% in 2013.

- Currently there are 54.5 million mobile Internet users in the United States, representing 25 percent of online users.

- Approximately 15% of iPhone applications are local.

These are some interesting numbers to consider, particularly if you look to market your business to a local audience. In a related story, mobile search usage has jumped 14% in a year's time (between '07 and '08)according to ABI Research.

BBB warns about advertising homes for All-Star game

St. Louisans hoping to rent their homes to out-of-town visitors for Major League Baseball’s All-Star game in July should be wary of an Arizona company advertising for local properties on its Web site, the Better Business Bureau of Eastern Missouri and Southern Illinois said Friday.

The company, MajorEventRentalz.com, appears to have ties to a similar Arizona company that prompted complaints from homeowners in Tampa following the Super Bowl, the BBB said.

Both MajorEventRentalz.com and FloridaSuperBowlRental.com list the same registered agent: Justin Mountford of 2424 W. Glenrosa Ave., Phoenix, the BB said.

In Tampa, the company advertised that it would serve as a middleman to rent homes to out-of-towners arriving for the Super Bowl. In several of those cases, FloridaSuperBowlRental asked homeowners for more than $1,000 up front to hire a photographer to take pictures of their homes. Company representatives then told the homeowners they would use the photos to post a “virtual tour” of their home to a Web site, in an effort to attract potential renters, but consumers complained to the Phoenix BBB that they paid and received nothing in return.

A request for comment from MajorEventRentalz.com was not immediately returned.

Lamar Advertising (LAMR) NewsBite - Trading With Unusual Volume

Lamar Advertising (LAMR) appears to be trading at a higher than usual volume today and is now at $7.00, up $0.61 (9.55%) on volume of 3,454,326 shares traded. For the last 30 days LAMR has traded 1,562,963 shares on average each day.

So far today's volume is 121.01% above that average volume. Over the last 52 weeks the stock has ranged from a low of $5.77 to a high of $42.64. Lamar Advertising stock has been showing support around $5.36 and resistance in the $7.22 range. Technical indicators for the stock are bullish and S&P gives LAMR a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

CT Jewelry Jobs Migrating South

Millions of dollars in jewelry and nearly 200 jobs are leaving Connecticut. Finlay Enterprises, a jewelry distributor in Orange is closing up shop and moving south.

Finley sells to 674 department stores like Bloomingdales and retailers like Bailey, Banks & Bittle at the West Farms Mall. But Thursday it announced its strategic plan, citing a decline in sales.

For starters it's moving to Greensboro, North Carolina leaving all 170 employees at its distribution center out of a job.

"Everybody is just shocked that we lost our jobs, there's nothing for us," says an employee who asked to not be identified.

In a letter to employees, Finlay says some people will lose their jobs at the end of April. Workers were told others will stay until September at the latest.

"We knew they were having financial problems, we thought that they would file for Chapter 11 and that we'd be okay."

The company is ending its relationship with all department stores and will concentrate on specialty retailers only. That shrinks its client base from close to 700 stores to about 70.

A spokesperson for the Finlay Enterprises says it deeply regrets the impact this will have one workers, but says they are doing what they need to do to sustain the company. It blames the current economic crisis for its decline. Last year alone shares of the company lost 97 percent of their value.

Saving your job (and sanity), 10 tips to survive

The United States shed 2.6 million jobs in 2008, with Arizona losing 115,000 jobs during that time - a higher percentage than every other state except for Rhode Island.

Companies are expected to keep cutting through 2009, especially as the economy contracts at its quickest pace in decades.

It's easy to be gripped by the fear that your job is next.

"People's productivity is being affected," said Dean Newlund, president of Phoenix-based Mission Facilitators International Inc. "It's hard to think clearly when you're depressed, when you're concerned about your job."

But it's a terrible strategy to hunker down in your cubicle and hope for the best. It's time to develop a strategy.

"Personally, I always feel better when I make a plan and take some action," said Ginny McMinn, founder and president of Gilbert-based McMinn HR, a human-resources consultancy.

10 steps you can take to save your job, sanity and move ahead,

1. Take on extra work.

This is not the time to cause problems at work. Arrive early and leave late. Get to the office before the boss and leave after him or her, even if it's just a five-minute span. Try to solve problems before asking for help from your boss.

Take on extra projects. Go above and beyond your job description. If layoffs occur, you want management to realize you're indispensable.

2. Figure out your place at work.

Stephen Viscusi, author of "Bulletproof Your Job: 4 Simple Strategies to Ride Out the Rough Times and Come Out on Top at Work," suggests that workers meet one-on-one with the boss for five minutes.

Ask him or her: "I know there are no guarantees, but where do I stand if we have layoffs here?"

The boss might reply: "I'm just as nervous as you, and I don't really know anything," or, "Your performance hasn't really been up to par, and I'm concerned about you."

Such a meeting will establish a baseline on where you stand. But keep it short.

3. Check your mental health.

Stress, in small amounts, can be good for people. It can provide the spark.

But try to avoid full-blown anxiety, which can show in the form of increased heart rate, sweating and shortness of breath.

Depression can take the form of a change in sleep habits, rapid weight loss or weight gain and decreased interest in activities a person once enjoyed. It also can come in the form of increased alcohol and drug abuse.

If eating better and exercising don't seem to abate these symptoms, it may be time to seek out a professional. Contact your company's employee-assistance program.

4. Help others.

Helping others who have less than you do can do wonders for your perspective.

One organization offering plenty of opportunities for busy people is Hands on Greater Phoenix (www.handsonphoenix.org). Volunteers can participate in a range of programs and time commitments.

5. Learn new skills.

Take advantage of any training offered by your company. Or check out the adult-education classes at a local community college.

What skills would help you advance your career? Web-page design? Learning Spanish? Taking leadership or management classes?

6. Put on a good face.

Look for the positive. This isn't to say you should be a Pollyanna; you must be realistic. But being cheerful helps. Help create the plan to move your company forward. And, as your company cuts back, it's a great opportunity to show your skills - maybe some you haven't been able to use.

7. Update your resume.

Many people have been out of the job market for years and haven't updated their resume. Others just add to the same resume they've had for years.

It's time to start fresh with an updated, professional document that highlights your qualifications.

Don't know where to begin? The Scottsdale Job Network offers a free resume critique on the first and third Tuesdays and Thursdays of the month. Details: www.scottsdalejobnet.com.

Other applicants have had luck with professional resume rewriting, although it can cost hundreds of dollars.

8. Project confidence.

You've heard the old adage, if you want to be a leader, act like one. Now is the time to do this. Go to meetings. Don't remain holed up in your office. You need to talk to people, helping spread your confidence. Your staff is looking for leadership, bring it. That means looking for solutions, not simply pointing out the problems.

9. Network, network, network.

This means more than just reconnecting with old friends and co-workers. What professional groups can you join? Are you attending events regularly?

Also, consider joining LinkedIn, a free, business-networking site. It connects friends, acquaintances and current and former co-workers.

10. Create a Plan B or C.

Ask yourself, "If I was laid off tomorrow and could do anything, what would it be?"

What kind of training is needed to do that job? How long does it take? What steps can you take now to begin down that career path, while you still have a paycheck from a job? Does it entail going back to school part time? Does it mean volunteering on weekends?

It's all about getting your foot in the door so that you have a safety net if your job disappears.

Sical Logistics partners with MMTC for greenfield iron ore terminal

Sical Logistics Ltd, India’s leading provider of integrated multi-modal solutions for bulk, container and offshore logistics, today announced its strategic partnership with MMTC Limited, the country’s premier international trading company, for its greenfield iron ore terminal project at Ennore Port. MMTC will hold 26% stake in Sical Iron Ore Terminals Ltd (SIOT), the special purpose vehicle (SPV) building the 12 MTPA (mn tonnes per annum) iron ore terminal and Sical will hold 63% stake. The balance 11% stake will be held by L&T Infrastructure Development Projects Ltd.

The shareholders agreement was signed on behalf of the respective companies by Sical’s Chairman Ashwin C Muthiah, MMTC’s Director (Marketing) Sunir Khurana and L&T IDPL’s Joint General Manager R Chandrasekaran .

The terminal is expected to be operational in a phased manner by early 2010, with a throughput of 6 MTPA in phase 1. SIOT and MMTC have signed the offtake agreement for 3 MTPA of iron ore for the first phase, which will be enhanced post the capacity addition in phase 2 of operations. The company will execute the second phase within 2 years of commencement of operations of phase 1.

On the signing of the agreement with MMTC, Ashwin C Muthiah, Chairman, Sical Logistics said, “We are pleased to partner with MMTC on our greenfield iron ore terminal project at Ennore Port. Both Sical and MMTC share a common vision of driving growth through investments in trade-related infrastructure in the country. We are confident that the upcoming terminal will greatly benefit the industry by enhancing capacity and reducing lead times in reaching international markets, with innovative and efficient logistics solutions. We look forward to a mutually beneficial and long lasting partnership in the years to come.”

Mr.Sanjiv Batra, Chairman & Managing Director of MMTC said, “MMTC is delighted to be associated with a premier logistics player like Sical, known for its world class logistics infrastructure and services. With this agreement we will be able to leverage our shared expertise in international trade and logistics for a fresh, more customer centric approach. The terminal will not only facilitate our global trade of iron ore but also enhance our access to new markets.”

The total project cost is estimated to be Rs 5 bn- Rs.3.9 bn in Phase 1 and Rs.1.1 bn in Phase 2. Sical achieved Rs 3.4 bn financial closure in March 08 with a syndication of leading banks.

Sical established SIOT in 2006 to build India’s largest iron ore terminal at Ennore on a build-operate-transfer (BOT) contract of 30 years. The terminal will offer state-of- the-art infrastructure and facilities including elaborate rail siding and large stock pile capacity. Initially, the terminal will handle Panamax and Cape size vessels up to 150,000 MT DWT; after dredging, the terminal will be able to handle vessels of 250,000 MT DWT. The contracts for the implementation of the project have already been awarded and construction is progressing as per schedule.

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About Sical Logistics

Sical Logistics Ltd is India’s leading provider of integrated solutions for multimodal bulk and containerized logistics and offshore logistics, annually handling more than 26 million tonnes of bulk cargo and 500,000 TEUs of containerized cargo.

Sical provides services in the following segments:

• Bulk logistics—Stevedoring; port terminals; CHA and shipping agency; trucking; railroad; warehousing
• Container logistics—Container terminals; ICD; CFS
• Offshore logistics—Platform supply vessel; cutter suction dredger

Sical's delivery network includes an exclusive walk-in berth at Chennai for ships carrying bulk cargo; a container terminal at Tuticorin; 225,000 square feet of storage across 17 warehouses; owned and regularly contracted fleet of more than 1000 transport vehicles; container freight stations at 3 locations across India; Sical Torino, a deepwater capable platform supply vessel in North Sea, and Sical PortoFino, a newly built cutter suction dredger.

About MMTC Limited

MMTC is a Government Company and is India’s leading international trading company, with an annual turnover of around United States Dollars $ Six (6) billion. Minerals, Precious Metals, Metals, Fertilizers, Coal Hydrocarbons, Agro Products, are the main sectors of its activities.

QThink Design Services Adopts Magma's Titan and Talus to Implement Next-Generation Mixed Signal Designs

Magma® Design Automation Inc., a provider of chip design software, announced today that QThink® Design Services has added Titan™ Chip Finishing to its Talus®-based design flow to implement next-generation digital and mixed-signal designs. By leveraging Titan’s tight integration with the Talus IC implementation system, Qthink can automate what are traditionally manual, repetitive and time-consuming steps in the chip finishing process, allowing them to provide their customers with shorter development cycles and reduced development costs.

“With third-party chip finishing, an inordinate amount of time is spent performing manual chip integration tasks such as top-level routing, connecting to the package routing layers, implementing last minute ECOs and adding manufacturing data,” said Urban Jangren, vice president of Engineering at QThink. “Titan is significantly faster and provides higher capacity than any other chip finishing tool we’ve used. It has turned several day’s of manual work into a scripted flow executed in minutes!”

“The Magma software offers the highest level of integration and automation, allowing designers to deliver ICs with better quality of results with less effort and in less time,” said Suk Lee, general manager of Magma’s Custom Design Business Unit. “QThink’s decision to use the Magma software is a strong endorsement of its ability to improve designer productivity.”

Titan: Lightning-Fast, Automated Chip Finishing and Live Integration with Digital Implementation

In traditional flows, chip finishing -- the point at which the digital and analog blocks of a design are integrated together -- is a time-consuming and manual task. Titan Chip Finishing provides complete and automated chip finishing capabilities. This fast, high-capacity system integrates mixed-signal layout with the Talus place-and-route capabilities. Titan Chip Finishing can manipulate the largest designs with ease, automates analog and special-net routing through an efficient constraints-based approach and makes all mixed-signal layout changes immediately available for physical and timing verification sign-off analysis through a live interface with Talus, Quartz™ DRC and Quartz LVS. Titan Chip Finishing can implement late engineering change orders (ECOs) that affect both analog and standard-cell components without significantly delaying the schedule.

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About QThink

QThink is a world leader in providing ASIC and SoC design services to leading semiconductor companies world wide. QThink offers flexible technical and business engagement models spanning the full range of implementation tasks, from architecture and specification through logic design, verification, and physical implementation. QThink’s robust and optimized methodology, coupled with our extensive team of design experts, has continuously demonstrated on-time delivery and right-by-construction silicon tape-outs for complex designs ranging from 130 to 45 nanometers. Partnering with QThink has allowed our customers to lower their operating costs as proven by successful delivery of over 200 designs to date through our design centers in San Diego, San Jose, and Bangalore, India.

About Magma

Magma’s software for designing integrated circuits (ICs) is used to create complex, high-performance chips required in cellular telephones, electronic games, WiFi, MP3 players, DVD/digital video, networking, automotive electronics and other electronic applications. Magma’s EDA software for IC implementation, analysis, physical verification, circuit simulation and characterization is recognized as embodying the best in semiconductor technology, enabling the world's top chip companies to “Design Ahead of the Curve”™ while reducing design time and costs. Magma is headquartered in San Jose, Calif., with offices around the world. Magma's stock trades on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol LAVA. Visit Magma Design Automation on the Web at www.magma-da.com.

Magma and Talus are registered trademarks, and “Design Ahead of the Curve,” Quartz and Titan are trademarks of Magma Design Automation Inc. All other product and company names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies.

Forward-looking Statements:

Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters set forth in this press release, including statements that Titan operates faster and provides higher capacity than any other chip finishing tool, that it seamlessly works with Magma’s Talus and Quartz DRC products, improves analog designers’ productivity and about the features and benefits of Magma’s software and QThink’s design services are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially including but not limited to Qthink’s decision to continue using Magma products, the ability of Magma’s products to produce the desired results and the company’s ability to keep pace with rapidly changing technology. Further discussion of these and other potential risk factors may be found in Magma's public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (www.sec.gov). The company undertakes no additional obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

Monnet makes open offer for Orissa Sponge

Mount Everest Trading & Investment Limited (“MTIL”), an associate company of Monnet Ispat & Energy Limited and part of the Monnet Group (“Monnet Group”) promoted by Mr. Sandeep Jajodia, and Torsteel Research Foundation in India and its associates (“TRFI”) promoted by Dr. P. K. Mohanty, have entered into definitive agreements to form a strategic partnership in Orissa Sponge and Iron Limited (“OSIL”) (“Strategic Partnership”) on February 24, 2009 (“Proposed Transaction”).

The Proposed Transaction envisages a partial sale of equity by TRFI to the Monnet Group. MTIL, with Monnet Ispat and TRFI as PACs, has made a mandatory public announcement on February 25, 2009, for a tender offer to the public shareholders of OSIL. The Proposed Transaction shall be consummated upon compliance with all provisions of the SEBI Takeover Code.

As per the Proposed Transaction, Monnet Group and TRFI shall together hold in excess of 50% in OSIL and shall have proportionate representation on the board of OSIL. It is a Strategic Partnership of shared vision and idealism for enhancing shareholders’ value. It is expected to substantially benefit OSIL and its shareholders with, Monnet Group’s substantial expertise in sponge iron and steel production and coal mining, OSIL’s iron ore and coal resources and TRFI’s existing expertise and knowhow in sponge iron manufacturing technology. The partners intend to formulate and execute a strategic plan, over the medium term, for the development of OSIL into an integrated steel producer with a capacity in excess of 1 million tones of steel in the first phase.

Monnet Group is the second largest coal based sponge iron producer in India and also engaged in manufacturing of steel and ferro alloys backed by captive resources i.e. coal, iron ore and captive power. The current operational manufacturing capacity of Monnet Group includes 800,000 tonnes of sponge iron, 500,000 tonnes of steel products and 150 MW of captive power in Chhatisgarh.

The Monnet Group is already committed to the state of Orissa and is investing in excess of Rs 4,000 crores in the first phase which includes 1,050 MW coal based power plant in Angul, Orissa.

TRFI is current promoter of OSIL and is also involved in research, development and consultancy activities in iron and steel industry and the civil engineering sector. They pioneered the introduction of high strength rebars under the trademark “Tor” in the early 1970s and through OSIL, developed the “OSIL Process” – a pioneering effort in coal based sponge iron technology in the early 1980s.

Macquarie Capital Advisors is the sole and exclusive financial advisor to the Proposed Transaction and ICICI Securities is the merchant banker for the open offer. Khaitan & Co and Desai Dewanji were the legal advisor to TRFI and Monnet Group respectively.