Iraq says its forces can fill US pullout gap

BAGHDAD (AFP) — Iraq believes its own forces have the muscle to ensure security as US President Barack Obama on Friday set an 18-month deadline for the end of American combat operations in the war-torn country amid doubts from foreign advisers.

Only a day before Obama's announcement, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said: "We have faith in our armed forces and our security services, to protect the country and consolidate security and stability."

Laying out a new strategy at a US Marines base in North Carolina, Obama said: "Let me say this as plainly as I can: by August 31, 2010 our combat mission in Iraq will end."

"I intend to remove all US troops from Iraq by the end of 2011," he said, adding that the post-2010 interim force would number between 35,000 and 50,000.

There are currently 142,000 American troops stationed in Iraq.

The White House said Obama, an early opponent of the Iraq war, briefed Maliki and his predecessor George W. Bush on the new plan by telephone shortly before making his speech.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said Obama heeded military advice in deciding to postpone by three months the pullout of most troops.

Commanders in Iraq, "particularly General (Raymond) Odierno," expressed concern that pulling out under the 16-month timeline by May 2010 could leave US forces short-handed at a sensitive time after crucial national elections in December, he said.

Under a military accord signed with Baghdad last November, Washington had already agreed to withdraw all of its combat troops by the end of 2011.

Following the 2003 overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the United States entirely dismantled Iraq's armed forces and police, and rebuilding began amid a violent insurrection and sectarian killings.

Today, after the expulsion of around 24,000 people with links to Islamist militias, the official police strength stands at 560,000.

"There is no doubt that Iraqi forces are capable of ensuring the country's security. We have already tested them and they are capable of assuming their responsibilities and standing up to threats," interior ministry spokesman General Abdel Karim Khalaf told AFP.

The defence ministry now boasts 260,000 troops, and has the ultimate target of a 300,000-strong military. It would be armed with modern equipment, and the acquisition of F-16 fighters is under negotiation.

In support, the Baghdad government has earmarked eight billion dollars to the security forces -- 12.6 percent of the 2009 budget.

"We are self-sufficient on many levels, but we still need help (from the US-led coalition) for surveillance of frontiers, the air force, the navy, sophisticated counter-terrorism weapons, and we need to make serious progress in intelligence matters," Iraq's counsellor for national security, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, told AFP recently.

Foreign advisers recognise there has been remarkable progress. But they also say logistical shortages threaten Iraqi operational capacity, and question whether these can be overcome before the US pullout.

"If we were leaving today, (the army) will be able to defend itself but it would rapidly disintegrate," says Australian commander John Snell, who sees the supply chain as priority.

The same uncertainty exists over the navy, destroyed in 1991 when a US-led coalition ousted Saddam's forces from Kuwait and advanced into southern Iraq.

Now being rebuilt, it has a total force of 2,000 sailors, with the aim of reaching 6,500 within three years. But it is not expected to be capable of defending Iraq's vital oil installations before the end of 2011.

"It will be difficult because we began from nothing, but I think our capacity will improve," said one naval officer, asking not to be identified.

In several relatively pacified provinces, Iraqi forces have been backed up by groups of the 100,000 members of the Sahwa (Awakening) movement, mostly former Sunni rebels who changed sides to fight against Al-Qaeda.

They were initially paid by the Americans but are now paid by Iraq's government.

But Diyala and Nineveh provinces, two bastions of Al-Qaeda, remain a real concern to the Iraqi authorities, despite joint military operations with the Americans.